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    Eperoto Introduces AWA: Statistical models for complex multi-claim disputes

    At Eperoto we are excited to announce the launch of a groundbreaking statistical method developed in collaboration with advanced students from Chalmers University of Technology and Gothenburg University. Introducing AWA, a game-changer in the realm of complex dispute assessment.

    What is AWA?

    AWA is Eperoto’s powerful statistical model built upon the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. In simple terms, it’s a cutting-edge approach that helps tackle the challenges of evaluating intricate legal disputes with a very large number of potential outcomes.

    Why AWA Matters

    Imagine a dispute that involves the regular aspects of going to court or arbitration: legal costs, potential recovery of own or payment of adverse legal costs, time and interest rates, and the risk of failed enforcement of a judgment or award. AWA excels in situations where these uncertainties intersect with a large amount of claims and counterclaims, which is often the case in complex construction disputes, resulting in millions of possible outcomes.

    How AWA works

    Let’s have a look at how AWA can be used by looking at an example where a user applied the model to a large construction case:

    In the case, a contractor had not received payment for several parts of a large construction project. The opposing party, the project owner, refuted the claims, questioned the cost estimates, and also countered with substantial counterclaims related to alleged flaws in the contractor’s works.

    The user, a legal counsel in a law firm, was of the opinion that some of the contractor’s claims had significantly stronger merits than others, and although some of the opposing party’s claims were substantiated, the quantum parts, detailing the damages, were considered weaker. The regular memo detailing the legal issues did a good job providing an understanding of these components individually but did not provide an overview of the overall picture from a commercial perspective.

    Eperoto’s new interface combined with the AWA model provided means to systematically assess the claims and counterclaims, understanding their combined values, and assess what could be a reasonable settlement alternative based on the overall risk value.

    The parties eventually settled, with the contractor accepting an offer slightly higher than counsel’s estimation of what would be a risk-neutral settlement value. The settlement made it easier for the parties when discussing other common ongoing projects.

    Who uses AWA and Eperoto

    Eperoto is most often used by lawyers working in law firms or large companies. Lawyers are apt at examining the “liability” component of in disputes in claims and the legal process in court or arbitration. In construction disputes, the lawyer’s assessments are often coupled with input from the commercial side around the costs and damage components of claims, as these questions are more closely linked to the cost and profit that is the core of the sales and procurement in construction works.

    Learn More About AWA

    Curious to explore how AWA can transform your approach to complex disputes? Dive deeper into this innovative statistical method by booking a demo.