Welcome to our video series on using decision analysis in litigation and arbitration. Decision analysis helps you assess disputes more clearly by combining legal judgment with expert input, supporting better decisions in settlement negotiations and trial strategy.
The series is made up of short videos, so you can either follow them in sequence as a structured course or jump directly to topics of interest.
View the playlist on YouTube or browse the topics below.
Getting started
Introduces litigation risk modelling using decision analysis. It introduces the method, explains why it is useful for assessing disputes, and shows how the tutorial series is structured.
Demonstrates how to model a simple legal claim with uncertain outcomes using decision analysis. It shows how to move from a qualitative assessment to a structured model with probabilities and defined outcomes.
Core concepts
Explains expected value, a common measure of the value of a legal dispute under uncertainty. It shows how probabilities and outcomes combine into a single figure that can be used to compare litigation with settlement options.
Explains how expected value behaves across different types of legal outcomes. It uses practical examples to show how gains and losses interact, and how expected value can guide decision-making.
Explains the limitations of expected value when assessing legal disputes. It introduces ways to understand the full range of outcomes using tables, histograms, and risk charts.
Legal costs and case value
Explains how legal costs affect case value when they are not recoverable, i.e. when each party pays their own legal costs (a.k.a. the American Rule). It shows how costs reduce expected value and introduce downside risk into the analysis.
Explains how cost shifting (i.e. ‘loser pays’) affects expected value and the range of outcomes in litigation. It shows how recoverable costs influence settlement decisions.
Explains how to handle already-incurred legal costs when analyzing litigation risk. It distinguishes between sunk costs and recoverable costs.
Estimating damages and testing assumptions
Explains how to easily model a range of damages using a three-point estimate. It shows how to capture uncertainty while keeping models simple.
Explains how to test key assumptions in a litigation risk model. It shows how changes in probabilities and values affect case outcomes.
Explains how to include interest in a litigation risk model. It shows how timing affects the value of claims and settlements.
Modelling more complex disputes
Explains how to model cases that depend on multiple legal questions. It shows how probabilities interact and how outcomes compound.
Explains how to model alternative causes of action (multiple legal arguments) in a dispute. It shows how to avoid double counting outcomes.
Explains how to model multiple heads of damages in a decision tree. It shows how different damage categories combine into a total award.
Explains how to model separate claims in a single case. It shows how outcomes combine and affect total exposure.
Explains advanced approaches to modelling legal costs as part of a litigation risk analysis. It shows how to handle uncertainty and claim-specific cost rules.
Claims, counterclaims and reductions
Explains how to model disputes with both claims and counterclaims. It shows how outcomes offset each other.
Explains how to model reductions to awards in a litigation risk assessment. It shows how set-offs affect total case value.
Enforcement and bankruptcy risk
Explains how enforcement risk affects the exposure of a case. It shows how the upside can be reduced by uncertainty in recovery.
Explains how claimant bankruptcy risk affects cost recovery. It shows how this changes settlement incentives and how to factor this risk into a model.
External and non-claim values
Explains how to include internal effort and management costs. It shows how these affect the true value of litigation.
Explains how to include reputational impacts and other non-financial factors in a dispute analysis.
Explains how insurance changes risk exposure when analyzing a dispute. It shows how it affects expected value and settlements for both parties.
Special modelling situations
Explains how to model withholding and counterclaims. It shows how undisputed amounts interact with claims.
Explains how to model the impact of appeals. It shows how additional time and costs change outcomes.
Get in touch
We love talking about how to model disputes and how Eperoto can help you achieve better outcomes. Get in touch if you have questions or just want to discuss: support@eperoto.com.